Editor’s Letter: Rose, Bud & Thorn
Once a month with my peer group of 9 other professionals, I share my “rose, bud and thorn.” We meet for half a day and talk about all kinds of stuff, family and work related. We’re all in different businesses, from insurance to manufacturing to law to banking, etc. The “rose, bud, thorn” exercise lets us share a recent success, an emerging opportunity, and a threat to avoid. Then we congratulate each other and advise as needed to encourage those buds and protect against thorns.
I’m going to do the same here. With a year ending and a new administration looming, it’s a good time. Thorn first.
Thorn: Tariffs
The new administration has floated a wide range of import tariffs, from 200% tariffs on John Deere products to 60% tariffs on goods from China, and a 10-20% tariff (or higher?) on all products imported to the U.S. I’m a free-trade guy, and I believe isolationism that comes from tariffs is not good economics in our global business state. But I will let Don Allan, CEO of Stanley Black & Decker (Dewalt, Cub Cadet, Hustler) explain as he did recently, “When I look at our industry, if I took our Chinese operation that we have today that makes power tools and brought it over in the US, the cost to make that product would be about 60% to 70% higher. So it’s substantial, which the consumer will not pay for.”
On tariffs, Allan, many other business leaders and economists agree. While tariffs might bring initial balance to trade deficits, they have an inflationary effect and are unlikely to increase U.S. manufacturing jobs. Let’s hope this thorn gets clipped.
Bud: Battery technology
Lithium-ion dominates the talk about batteries today. But tomorrow? That’s the excitement about a bud. Sodium-ion. Solid-state. Lithium-sulphur. Or just better lithium-ion batteries? The batteries of tomorrow will be lighter, less expensive, easier to recycle, safer, and more energy dense. This is not an environmental dream; it’s the economic reality coming from a marketplace responding to the world’s increased demand for battery-powered vehicles and equipment. It’s going to happen tomorrow, and gasoline or diesel fuel are buds that will continue to bloom on other flowers. I’m looking forward to battery improvements.
Rose: The people I meet
I am grateful for the people I’ve met in 2024. So many people have had an immense impact on my year and the year ahead. Yes, I have my personal and professional challenges day to day, but people improve my life and work. I learned recently there is science behind that. Shawn Achor, an author and keynote speaker at the NALP Elevate conference is a happiness researcher, and he shared an interesting factoid in his presentation on happiness. Scientists at the University of Plymouth, UK, asked students to estimate the steepness of a hill by tilting a board to match its slope. Students with a friend nearby assessed the hill at 10 to 15 per cent less steep compared with those who were alone during the test. Meaning: If you judge a hill you need to climb while standing by yourself, your brain perceives that hill as being 20 percent steeper than if you were standing next to a friend who is not even looking in the direction of the hill.
That doesn’t make the hill less steep, but it sure makes the climb seem easier.
Share your Rose, Bud & Thorn with me anytime – ghansen@epgacceleration.com
